Analysts Mull the Results of Chen's Pronouncement

By Monique Chu

Taipei Times, Aug. 4, 2002

President Chen Shui-bian's declaration that Taiwan and China are independent countries may enrage its giant neighbor, although its impact on cross-strait ties is uncertain, analysts said yesterday.

"With Chinese leaders now busy with political infighting, this statement may further exacerbate their internal struggle," said Cheng Tuan-yao, research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.

Chen, in an address yesterday said: "Taiwan is not a part of another country, not a local government or province of another country."

"In other words, Taiwan and China are countries on either side [of the Taiwan Strait]. We must be clear about this," Chen said.

Chen also said he backed legislation for a referendum to decide whether Taiwan should formally declare independence from China.

Chen's remarks, political analysts agreed, echoed former President Lee Teng-hui's unprecedented statement back in July 1999 that Taiwan and China have a "special-state-to-state" relationship. Lee's argument brought years of saber rattling and a cold shoulder from Beijing.

"I think the timing of Chen's statement is bad, as it may further ignite the unification-independence debate inside Taiwan and may create instability across the Taiwan Strait," Cheng said.

But other analysts said Chen's speech would not likely result in dramatic cross-strait change.

"Business links will continue and so will the call for direct links, because this is what both governments want in pragmatic terms," said Chin Heng-wei, editor-in-chief of the Contemporary Monthly.

Edward Chen, professor at the graduate institute of American studies at Tamkang University, predicted that China's response to Chen's remarks would not be as fierce as one might imagine.

"Chen's remarks did not go beyond Lee's `special-state-to-state' remarks. So the shock China receives this time will be weaker. That's to say nothing of the goodwill Chen has shown China since his inauguration," Chen said.

Chen's goodwill in regard to China was showcased in his inaugural speech in May 2000. Chen then said that as long as China has no intention of using military force against Taiwan, he vowed he would not declare independence and would not change the nation's name.

Chen also said that he would not push for the inclusion of the `special-state-to-state' description in the Constitution, nor would he promote a referendum to change the status quo, if China were to abandon the use of force against Taiwan.

China, however, has never dropped the use of force and has insisted on having Taipei accept the so-called "one China" policy as a precondition for the resumption of cross-strait talks, a request Chen refuses to consider.

The president's remarks yesterday will at least thwart any prospect of talks on establishing direct links for the time being, Chen said.

"Unless new inducements for talks arise, a related push in this direction will likely take time," Chen said.

Although complex domestic and international events culminated in Chen's statement, analysts agreed that Chen's frustration in dealing with China since his inauguration was part of the trigger.

"Chen was outraged by China's move to lure Nauru to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing on the same day Chen was inaugurated as the DPP chairman. He was also upset by China's aloof response to his China policy," Cheng said.

Chin also commented on what he saw as the domestic causes for Chen's remarks.

"When Chen won high office, China didn't take him seriously, thinking his power base was shaky," Chin said.

"Until Chen's DPP won the legislative elections [last December] and emerged as the largest party in the legislature, China continued to play down his significance, although admitting Chen was a major player that Beijing has to deal with," Chin said.

"But still, China has stuck to an `antagonistic' approach to dealing with Taiwan," Chin said, adding that in the long run, this would damage Chen's power base.

After all, Chin argued, Chen's conciliatory gestures toward China since his inauguration have upset some of the hard-liners within the DPP camp.

"Now that he has substantiated his power, both in the legislative and the executive branches, he felt confident in returning to what he had insisted on in the past, and this move would appease his hard-line supporters," Chin said.

With the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections deemed a litmus test for the 2004 presidential election, analysts said Chen's remarks yesterday constituted to a gradual warm-up for his expected candidacy in the presidential race.

"I believe his statements are part of the overall political planning for the race over the next two years," Chen said.

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