The Asian Wall Street Journal May 1, 2000

By RUSSELL FLANNERY

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Taiwanese are rallying around President-elect Chen Shui-bian in the face of Beijing's high-pressure campaign to force him to accept its view that Taiwan is part of "one China," according to two new public-opinion polls.

The latest failure of harsh Chinese rhetoric to sway Taiwanese political opinion could lead Beijing to moderate its tone before Mr. Chen delivers his inaugural address on May 20, some analysts say. "China's problem right now is that it needs to find an exit stairway out of the whole thing," says Don Hong, dean of the school of social sciences at National Sun Yat-Sen University.

Mr. Chen's strong showing in the polls is important because he won the three-way presidential race with just 39% of the total vote. Rivals cited Mr. Chen's minority victory to suggest that his views -- especially on mainland affairs -- weren't necessarily representative of the majority of Taiwan residents. Mr. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party has long supported independence from China.

However, Mr. Chen -- who was elected mainly because of his strong anti-corruption stance -- has abided by campaign pledges not to back an independence initiative unless China attacks Taiwan. He has also made several conciliatory gestures toward Beijing, including inviting Chinese officials to his inauguration and seeking talks to end a ban on direct shipping and air links.

"His cautious approach is winning public support," particularly in China-Taiwan relations, said Lillian Wu, vice president of Gallup Taiwan. Mr. Chen's willingness to tap a popular military figure from the departing Nationalist Party, Tang Fei, to lead his new cabinet has also altered a public image of Taiwan's new leader as arrogant, analysts say.

Beijing has rattled Taiwan's stock market and raised regional tension by demanding that Mr. Chen, in his inaugural address, acknowledge a "one-China principle." Critics say that could imply that Taiwan should be ruled by Beijing. China's communist government claims sovereignty over this island of 22 million, even though it has never ruled here and the two territories have been divided since 1949.

Tang Shubei, a top mainland negotiator on Taiwan affairs, last week warned of "disaster" in relations with Taipei if Mr. Chen didn't endorse the one-China principle.

For his part, Mr. Chen -- a lawyer -- has offered to make the one-China principle an item for discussion between the two sides, saying the concept is too vague and needs to be better understood.

Beijing's latest demands follow a bellicose speech by Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji just before Taiwan's election in which he warned voters not to back Mr. Chen. Chinese efforts to sway the election backfired, however, and Mr. Zhu's speech actually boosted turnout among Mr. Chen's supporters, analysts say. Similarly, China launched intimidating military exercises around the island during a presidential election in 1996, only to see pro-unification candidates lose.

The TVBS survey showed scant political pressure at home for Mr. Chen to accept Beijing's view, with only 4% of those polled saying he should endorse the one-China principle in his inaugural address.

By contrast, 17% of those polled said Mr. Chen should embrace departing President Lee Teng-hui's "state-to-state" formula for cross-strait relations. And 25% said he should support a 1992 arrangement between the two sides under which they agreed to the existence of "one China," but disagreed over how to define it. Taiwan's chief envoy to China, C.F. Koo, on Saturday also called for Beijing to accept the 1992 terms as a basis for relations under Mr. Chen's government. It isn't clear whether China would accept such wording from Mr. Chen, analysts here say.